Assessment and monitoring of marine debris in Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) is located 32.4 km offshore of Sapelo Island, Georgia. The ecological importance of this area is related to the transition between tropical and temperate waters, and the existence of a topographically complex system of ledges. Due to its central location, GRNMS can be used as a focal site to study the accumulation and impacts of marine debris on the Atlantic continental shelf offshore of the Southeast United States. Previously, researchers characterized marine debris in GRNMS and reported that incidence of the debris at the limited densely colonized ledge sites was significantly greater than at sand or sparsely colonized live bottom, and is further influenced by the level of boating activity and physiographic characteristics (e.g., ledge height). Information gleaned from the initial marine debris characterization was used to devise a strategy for prioritizing cleanup and monitoring efforts. However, a significant gap in knowledge was the rate of debris accumulation. The primary objective of this study was to select, mark, and perform initial marine debris surveys at permanent monitoring sites within GRNMS to quantify long-term trends in types, abundance, impacts, and accumulation rates of debris. Ledge sites were selected to compare types, abundance, and accumulation rates of marine debris between a) areas of high and low use and b) short and tall ledges. Nine permanent monitoring sites were marked and initially surveyed in 2007/2008. Surveys were conducted within a 50 x 4 m transect for a total survey area of 200 square meters. All debris was removed and detailed information was taken on the types of debris, quantity, and associations with benthic fauna. Information on associations with benthic fauna included degree of entanglement, type of organism with which it is entangled or resting on, degree of fouling, and visible impacts such as tissue abrasions. Sites were re-surveyed approximately one year later to quantify new accumulation. During the initial survey, a total of ten debris items, totaling 16.3 kg in weight, were removed from two monitoring stations, both “tall” sites within the area of high boat use. Year-one accumulation totaled five items and approximately 7 kg in weight. Similar to the initial survey, all debris was found at sites in the area of high boat use. However, in contrast to the initial survey, two of these items were found on medium-height ledges. Removed items included fishing line, leaders, rope, plastic, and fabric. Although items were often encrusted in benthic biota or entangled on the ledge, impacts such as abrasions or other injuries were not observed. During the 2009 monitoring efforts, volunteer divers were trained to conduct the survey. Monitoring protocols were documented for GRNMS staff and included as an appendix of this report to enable long-term monitoring of sites. Additionally, national reconnaissance data (e.g. satellite, radar, aerial surveys) and other information on known fishing locations were examined for patterns of resource use and correlations with debris occurrence patterns. A previous model predicting the density of marine debris based on ledge features and boat use was refined and the results were used to generate a map of predicted debris density for all ledges

Effects of Anxiety and Demand Conditions on Modeling Behavior

Psycholog

Decreasing the minimum length criterion for an episode of hypomania: evaluation using self-reported data from patients with bipolar disorder

Brief hypomania lasting less than 4 days may impair functioning and help to detect bipolarity. This study analyzed brief hypomania that occurred in patients with bipolar disorder who were diagnosed according to the DSM-IV criteria. Daily self-reported mood ratings were obtained from 393 patients (247 bipolar I and 146 bipolar II) for 6 months (75,284 days of data, mean 191.6 days). Episodes of hypomania were calculated using a 4, 3, 2, and single day length criterion. Brief hypomania occurred frequently. With a decrease in the minimum criterion from 4 days to 2 days, there were almost twice as many patients with an episode of hypomania (102 vs. 190), and more than twice as many episodes (305 vs. 863). Single days of hypomania were experienced by 271 (69%) of the sample. With a 2-day episode length, 33% of all hypomania remained outside of an episode. There was no significant difference in the percent of hypomanic days outside of an episode between patients with bipolar I and II disorders. There were no significant differences in the demographic characteristics of patients who met the 4-day minimum as compared with those who only experienced episodes of hypomania using a shortened length criterion. Decreasing the minimum length criterion for an episode of hypomania will cause a large increase in the number of patients who experience an episode and in the aggregate number of episodes, but will not distinguish subgroups within a sample who meet the DSM-IV criteria for bipolar disorder. Frequency may be an important dimensional aspect of brief hypomania. Clinicians should regularly probe for brief hypomania

Exploiting ecology in drug pulse sequences in favour of population reduction

A deterministic population dynamics model involving birth and death for a two-species system, comprising a wild-type and more resistant species competing via logistic growth, is subjected to two distinct stress environments designed to mimic those that would typically be induced by temporal variation in the concentration of a drug (antibiotic or chemotherapeutic) as it permeates through the population and is progressively degraded. Different treatment regimes, involving single or periodical doses, are evaluated in terms of the minimal population size (a measure of the extinction probability), and the population composition (a measure of the selection pressure for resistance or tolerance during the treatment). We show that there exist timescales over which the low-stress regime is as effective as the high-stress regime, due to the competition between the two species. For multiple periodic treatments, competition can ensure that the minimal population size is attained during the first pulse when the high-stress regime is short, which implies that a single short pulse can be more effective than a more protracted regime. Our results suggest that when the duration of the high-stress environment is restricted, a treatment with one or multiple shorter pulses can produce better outcomes than a single long treatment. If ecological competition is to be exploited for treatments, it is crucial to determine these timescales, and estimate for the minimal population threshold that suffices for extinction. These parameters can be quantified by experiment

Workshop Report: Container Based Analysis Environments for Research Data Access and Computing

Report of the first workshop on Container Based Analysis Environments for Research Data Access and Computing supported by the National Data Service and Data Exploration Lab and held at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations

The variable hard x-ray emission of NGC 4945 as observed by NUSTAR

We present a broadband (~0.5-79 keV) spectral and temporal analysis of multiple NuSTAR observations combined with archival Suzaku and Chandra data of NGC4945, the brightest extragalactic source at 100 keV. We observe hard X-ray (> 10 keV) flux and spectral variability, with flux variations of a factor 2 on timescales of 20 ksec. A variable primary continuum dominates the high energy spectrum (>10 keV) in all the states, while the reflected/scattered flux which dominates at E< 10 keV stays approximately constant. From modelling the complex reflection/transmission spectrum we derive a Compton depth along the line of sight of tau_Thomson ~ 2.9, and a global covering factor for the circumnuclear gas of ~ 0.15. This agrees with the constraints derived from the high energy variability, which implies that most of the high energy flux is transmitted, rather that Compton-scattered. This demonstrates the effectiveness of spectral analysis in constraining the geometric properties of the circumnuclear gas, and validates similar methods used for analyzing the spectra of other bright, Compton-thick AGN. The lower limits on the e-folding energy are between 200-300 keV, consistent with previous BeppoSAX, Suzaku and Swift BAT observations. The accretion rate, estimated from the X-ray luminosity and assuming a bolometric correction typical of type 2 AGN, is in the range ~0.1-0.3 lambda_Edd depending on the flux state. The substantial observed X-ray luminosity variability of NGC4945 implies that large errors can arise from using single-epoch X-ray data to derive L/L_Edd values for obscured AGNs.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap